Two-intervention social distancing strategy to control COVID-19 in Mosul city; A Comparative study

Authors

  • Muhammad A. Ahmed Assistant professor; University of Mosul - College of Pharmacy
  • Zena N. Al Jalelli Al Khansaa Teaching Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa
  • Muataz A. Alani Al Khansaa Teaching Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa
  • Firas I. Mostafa Iraqi coordinator of WHO/IRAQ
  • Aws A. Al-Hamdani Al Khansaa Teaching Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa
  • Rowa fawaz Al Shifaa Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa
  • Saraa M. Ghanim Al Shifaa Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa
  • Zahraa A. Al-Kataan Al Khansaa Teaching Hospital - directorate of the health of Ninawa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32947/ajps.v20i3.760

Keywords:

COVID-19, Mosul, Santa Clara, social distancing and light switch approach

Abstract

Background: Novel coronavirus what known now as COVID-19 pandemic represents worldwide health problem. It presented as an upper respiratory infection, acute respiratory distress syndrome, micro thrombosis, sepsis, septic shock, and multi-organ failure and death. Early recognition of suspected cases allows health staff and local gover-

 

Nment the sufficient time to initiate the appropriate international and national protocols to control the transmission of infection.

Aim:  Evaluate the effectiveness of two- intervention social distancing strategy that was applied to control COVID-19 in Mosul city.

Method: Using mathematical simulation model for COVID-19 spread implemented in Santa Clara City in US to estimate the expected burden of the pandemic in Mosul City. This model give a numerical data about the number of the infected cases and time interval of applying the appropriate intervention control strategies by comparing single-strategy (social distancing) to two-intervention strategy (social distancing & light switch approach).

Results: The two interventions strategy shows that on average, the baseline epidemic scenario affected 12.3% of the population in comparison to 11.6% with single-strategy at 70% contact rate. While at the rate of 20% of social contact, only 0.11 % of the population will be infected in the two-intervention strategy in comparison to 0.165% when the single strategy applied. This means a significant reduction in the spread of the infection and the peak time incidence in all hypotheses will be significantly delayed.

Conclusion: The two- intervention social distancing strategy is an efficient tool to control COVID-19 in Mosul city and this represents a big success for Crisis Cell in controlling the pandemic in Mosul city.

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Published

2020-09-01